Identification and Prediction of Crop Waterlogging Risk Areas under the Impact of Climate Change

Waterlogging refers to the damage plants by water stress due excess soil in crop’s root zone that exceeds maximum holding capacity of field. It is one major disasters affecting agricultural production. This study aims add a crop waterlogging identification module coupled SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools)-MODFLOW (Modular Finite Difference Groundwater Flow Model) model accurately identify predict risk areas under CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) climate scenarios. The result showed that: (1) SWAT-MODFLOW model, which with module, had good simulation results for LAI (Leaf Area Index), ET (Evapotranspiration), spring wheat yield, groundwater level middle lower reaches Bayin River; (2) precipitation an overall increasing trend River watersheds over next 80 years SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 temperature clear scenarios; (3) Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, mountain runoff from upper was substantially higher than other scenarios after 2041. will decrease scenario. initial then scenario; (4) During historical period, area 10.9 km2. In years, occur 2055 minimum area, 9.49 km2, occurred 2042 changes at each scenario are mainly influenced River.